I have a 100% success rate with smokers. That’s right 100%. Not one smoking client has ever smoked while in my office. I’m being ridiculous right? Yes, but there’s no denying that my success rate is 100% under that criterion and that’s the point. You cannot have a meaningful success rate without defining what success is. So exactly how long does a smoker have to refrain from smoking before he goes into your success column? If I define the time as 2 weeks and you define it at as 2 years we can both have the same rate, but who is more successful?
Sorry, but you cannot base a success rate on the percentage of clients that come back for free follow-up sessions if they continue to smoke. You do not know that those that do not are not smoking. Dividing those that do not come back into multiple possibilities, some smoke because they want, some don’t bother to come back, and some are smoke-free doesn’t help either. You cannot say that your success rate is least 33% because there’s nothing that says your clients are going to be evenly distributed amongst those outcomes. A full 100% might still be smokers.
So if you’re really serious about knowing what your success rate with smokers is you have to start by defining the interval that defines success and you must follow-up with every client during that term to see if they are smoking or not. Now you’re at least being honest with yourself, but your client is still in the dark. Your competitor might define her success rate less stringently than yours. Even if she defines it exactly as you do and is just as diligent in following up there’s still a piece of the puzzle missing. How many clients did she see and how many did you see? You both might legitimately claim 75% success rates, but she’s seen 25 clients and you’ve seen 250. Who would you have more confidence in?
It’s for these reasons that I find quoting personal success rates misleading at best. In short, it’s very unlikely that there is any scientific basis for them. When a potential client asks me about my success rate I tell them that I do not find them useful and tell them why. Further, I’m not sure it’s useful for the client to know. You could say that quoting a good success rate will increase the expectation of achieving success. Perhaps, but if you quote, say, a 75% success rate, could it not be just as likely that the client will identify with the 25% that fail? If you’re going to base your success rate on anything other than solid statistical methods, you might as well go all the way and claim that 100% success rate
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I believe that it is more useful for the smoker to know that he is an individual who has the power within to stop smoking with hypnosis. That’s the only success rate that matters.
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